They say that fire is one of the biggest causes of earthquake-related destruction. If so, then maybe the San Jose Mercury News has some good news today. A new study suggests that, in the event of a large earthquake along the Calaveras Fault, the Anderson Dam in Morgan Hill could fail. What would this mean?
In the worst case, a complete failure of Anderson Dam could send a wall of water 35 feet high into downtown Morgan Hill within 14 minutes, and eight feet deep into San Jose within three hours, under state emergency scenarios.An eight foot wall of water in San Jose? Kowbunga (dude)! Unfortunately, the surfing won't be totally primo, as the water will presumably be choked with the corpses of Morgan Hillers. Of course, this occurrence isn't super likely:
How likely is a massive quake on that fault that could threaten the dam's integrity?For those of you who enjoy imagining the Bay Area Apocalypse, this should help you out a bit.
In recorded history, there have been no 6.6 or larger magnitude quakes on the Calaveras Fault. But one isn't impossible.
In 2003, the U.S. Geological Survey concluded that there is an 11 percent probability of a quake of 6.7 or larger on the Calaveras Fault in the next 30 years, and a 2 percent probability of a 7.0 or larger quake on the fault over the same time.
"If the Calaveras Fault ruptured across multiple segments, you could get an earthquake up to 7.2," said David Oppenheimer, a USGS seismologist in Menlo Park. "I don't think that's likely to occur, but you can't rule it out entirely."
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8 comments:
Yeah, but what are the chances one happens before the world ends on 12/21/2012?
Thanks!! I didn't need to sleep tonight. No, no. Not at all.
@Mere: just sleep with your water wings on!
@Todd: okay, I'll bite. Why will the world end then? Or what if the earthquake is part of the end of the world?
The Mayan calendar runs out on that date, and there are also Hopi apocalyptic prophecies connected to it.
We're doomed, I tell you. Doomed!
Todd, I've been telling you for years that your Mayan religion would get you into trouble. But you had to keep worshipping Bolon Dzacab and doing all of those blood-letting rituals in your basement. Well, I hope you're happy now that you've brought about the end of the world.
Ohhhh, I get it. Whenever Todd said he was out looking for virgins, I thought he was just lonely. Now it all makes sense...
The BeeMaster
Word verification: houndles (Clearly what you hold your hound with)
And remember that Christmas when Todd wove us each a Hopi blanket? (Mine was purple!)
We probably should have seen this coming...
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